The Louisville mayoral race did a 180-degree turn over the past month with Republican Hal Heiner taking the lead, according to a new Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Heiner leads Democrat Greg Fischer by seven percentage points in the latest survey, which was conducted Oct. 21-25 and found Heiner with the support of 51 percent of the 631 likely voters who responded.
It's the first time that either candidate broke the 50 percent threshold.
Fischer had been incrementally building a lead in the race over the course of three previous Bluegrass polls. The first, in early August, had the two candidates tied at 45 percent. Fischer built a two point lead in a late August poll, and extended it to six points by late September.
The poll released Wednesday has 4 percent of likely voters undecided, down from 6 percent in the September pool. Independent candidates Nimbus Couzin (1 percent) and Jerry T. Mills (zero percent) barely registered.
Heiner said he is "pleased to see some positive momentum" after campaigning for 14 months. He attributed the 13 percentage point swing between the last two polls to people finally taking interest in the race as the Nov. 2 election nears.
"As people get down to the end and start making their decisions, they are obviously embracing our campaign," Heiner said. "People are starting to lock in their support."
Fischer said he will use the new poll results to motivate his supporters.
"People will see this and it will energize them even more," Fischer said. "I've been the hardest working candidate for 15 months, and I will be that until the end. We like our momentum; we like our energy; we feel good."
Heiner saw his biggest gains in the new poll among men and affluent voters - people who make more than $50,000 a year.
Among men, Heiner gained 12 percentage points; among the affluent he gained 9 percentage points. Heiner also increased his draw from people who consider themselves Democrats - up to 24 percent from 17 percent in the August poll.
That last category is particularly important in Jefferson County, in which voter registration favors Democrats nearly 2-to-1.
"We laid out our platform, it wasn't based on party ideology," Heiner said. "It was what would move Louisville forward. It is a platform that I think all Louisvillians can embrace."
Fischer holds a 58 percentage point lead among likely black voters. The poll says Fischer could surge closer to Heiner if black voter turnout increases.
"We will have a massive get-out-the-vote effort," Fischer said. I think that will make a real difference."
Heiner said his campaign is planning much the same - the "most extensive grassroots plan Jefferson County has ever seen," he said, adding that his volunteers will knock on between 20,000 and 30,000 doors before the election.